Expectations
Unspoken expectations. The kind you can sense from a slight raise of an eyebrow, a narrowing of the eyes, naunces of the voice and other unconscious gestures, to me, are one of the strange paradoxes of life.Living up to expectations is one of the hardest things to do. Having to meet expectations weighs you down, makes you feel trapped and feel like you are living your life merely to please someone else.
I would think, expecting people to live up to your expectations is one of the most unfair things to ask of a person. The inadequacy the person feels when they fail to live up to something that is expected of them, is crushing. Disappointment at themselves and having to face the disappointment of people they love, is horrible.
However despite realizing that, the strange thing is, when everything's been said and done, it's impossible not to have any expectations at all is it not?
So, as 2005 draws to an end, what do you all expect of 2006?
posted by N.J.A.P.F. @ 11:02 PM
6 Comments:
i wrote this the other day to a friend of mine. Supposed be understood beyond it's economic mumbo-jumbo.
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expectation is a curious thing.
i am currently figuring out a pseudo-mathematical model (ie, wannabe model) that would explain, if it is there, how some people, regardless of how informed, might systematically expect erroneously. it is based on simple rationale, combining past experience to extrapolate to the future.
might be tad unfriendly to explain in an economic manner, so i will strip it down. here goes:
let's do a thought experiment. imagine 3 scenerios.
1. you form your expectation on the future, specifically a year (arbitrary) ahead. fast forward a year ahead, and the future is better than expected. it best your expectation.
2. similar to 1) but the future is below your expectation.
3. similar to 1) but the is future is within expectation. nothing too interesting.
so how is expectation of the third year formed?
1. optimistic. expectation of the 3rd year will be higher than what it might normally be. feeling lucky.
2. pessimistic. expectation of the 3rd year will be lower than what it might normally be. disappointed of what was.
3. similar expectation as the 2nd year.
Simplistic? Common-sense? Yea, economists tend to make a big deal out of common sense; our bread and butter.
So why am i doing this? Well, i realised that analysts from big research houses and investment banks tend to forecast the Malaysia GDP erroneously, and there seemed to be a pattern. When they expect the GDP to be 5, and it came out as 4, the next quarter's GDP forecast from them would almost definitely be lower than what it what it would actually be. This is true. Almost Pavlovian. I illustrate:
In the 1st Quarter this year, they expected GDP to be 5.1%, it came out 5.7%. So after that, expectation was bouyant...
Then they expect 2nd Qtr to be 4.8%, it came out 4.1%. Horrible. They started prophesizing that the Malaysian economic was going downhill, bad vibes everywhere, from the media to most analysts reports.
They expect GDP in 3rd Qtr to be 4.6%, and guess what it really was? 5.3%. Amazing coincidence?
Guess what the error sign will be like in the 4th Qtr? I will wait when the real number comes out.
Anyway.
Amazingly applicable rationale in many other scenerios. Formation of expectations. Extrapolation into the future. The more you are disappointed, the less you expect.
It could be a good thing. You might just be pleasantly surprised sometimes.
allen: Interesting economic parallels to my entry.
So you saying that the baseline is this: always have low expectations so that you won't be disappointed?
well, no actually. it was merely an observation, not a prescription*.
I am not justifiably equipped with the authority to dictate what should be. I am merely an observer who articulate what is.
.....
or merely it was an attempt to console one self after being sorely disappointed... by reminding one self that it could get better later.
* for eg, if i could articulate technically how cloning of a human works, it does not mean i condone ethically the act of cloning; non sequitur.
allen: "Reminding one self that it could get better later" sounds like a hopeful, positive note, a fitting motto to start the new year with, I think. =D
Happy New Year to you and keep me updated on the 4th quarter's GDP, kay?
Perhaps it really will be a pleasant surprise.
Happy New Year to you too!
and i want so cookie too... :(
allen: Are you volunteering to be a guin...err, I mean, official cookie tester? Haha.
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